In August 2024, the Australia Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO) raised the country’s terrorism threat level from ‘possible’ to ‘probable’, with their revised assessment indicating a greater than 50% chance of an onshore terrorist attack or planned event occurring within the next 12 months. The move reflects Australia’s ever-changing threat landscape, with a broad range of factors contributing to the increase, some not falling within the traditional scope of terrorism. These include the threats from lone actors, an increased number of Australians embracing a wider range of extremist ideologies, and a lowered threshold for the use of violence to advance political, ideological, or religious aims, or as a response to individual grievances.
Recent acts of public violence
August’s announcement followed a series of fatal incidents and foiled plots which began in January 2024, when a man injured six people in a stabbing attack carried out across multiple public spaces in Melbourne, Victoria. Two months later, on 13 April, the issue of violent attacks against the public was brought into sharp focus by another multiple victim stabbing attack in the eastern Sydney suburb of Bondi Junction, the deadliest to strike Australia for decades.
The Bondi Junction attacker, identified as 40-year-old Joel Cauchi, ultimately went on to kill six people and injure 11 others during his rampage at the Westfield shopping centre, before being fatally shot by first responders. In addition to the human toll, the attack had far-reaching implications for the operator of Westfield shopping centres, who decided to close its Bondi Junction site until 19 April, and invest in the deployment of increased security measures across all of its 37 locations nationally – indicating the levels of business interruption and residual costs that even low sophistication attacks can entail. The incident also caused significant concern within the community, not least due to its exceptional nature and Cauchi’s focus on targeting women.
Days after this attack, a 16-year-old boy, later charged with “committing a terrorist act”, set upon churchgoers with a knife at the Christ the Good Shepherd Church, an Assyrian religious institution in the western Sydney suburb of Wakely, striking two priests before injuring two others in what authorities have classified as an act Islamic extremism.
These incidents were followed by an attempted terrorist plot to attack the offices of a Labour MP in Newcastle, NSW, in which a self-described right-wing extremist attended the politician’s office with the intent to kill, before being apprehended by law enforcement officers. A month later, in July, a 14-yearold boy, who demonstrated racist, white supremacist, nationalist, and neo-Nazi views, was arrested after attacking a 22-year-old student with a knife at the University of Sydney, in what is also being treated as an act of terrorism.
The growing influence of social media
These attacks highlight the varied motivations behind recent acts of violence, which have become a defining feature of Australia’s increasingly complex security landscape. However, they also exhibit striking similarities. Almost all attacks during the past 15 months were conducted by lone actors or small groups, armed with rudimentary weapons, including knives, improvised explosive devices, or firearms, with the assailants being self-radicalized through extremist online content.
Social media has become a key enabler for radicalization in Australia. Extremists exploit a wide range of platforms – including Facebook, X, TikTok, Telegram, and YouTube – to reach large and varied audiences, while also using more targeted methods, such as encrypted direct messages, chatrooms, and forums. This gives them nearly unrestricted access to individuals most vulnerable to radicalization. Combined with the growing trend of grievance-fuelled violence, including those relating to extreme religious, social, nationalist, political, environmental, or racist beliefs, the profile of potential attackers continues to widen, presenting an even greater challenge to Australia’s counterterrorism forces.
One identifiable trend is the increase in young people involved in counterterrorism investigations. Indeed, between 2019 and 2022, the proportion of counterterrorism investigations against minors increased fivefold and in 2024, juveniles were involved in almost all the terrorist plots disrupted.
Young people are acutely vulnerable to extremist ideologies, conspiracies, and misinformation spread through social media, where demographically, they are overwhelmingly the most active users. Additionally, the algorithms used by social media platforms are designed for immersive engagement and further amplify extremist messaging, increasing the likelihood for self-radicalization. Particularly vulnerable individuals often feel societally marginalized, alienated, or unsupported and may find solace, purpose, or belonging within extremist circles.
Obstacles to identification and prevention
These contemporary methods of radicalization aid potential assailants in circumventing law enforcement detection. Since these events are commonly perpetrated without extensive premeditation, often by lone actors, and require no external party to help orchestrate an attack, authorities have minimal opportunities to intercept communications or identify concerning behavioural patterns demonstrated by suspected assailants. Additionally, the accelerating progression between radicalization and the execution of an attack further inhibits the ability for security services to prevent incidents.
Of note, prior to the Bondi Junction, Christ the Good Shepherd Church, and Sydney University attacks, the assailants had exhibited concerning behaviours, however, prevention did not occur. This is a regular pattern observed in other countries, particularly Europe, where assailants are often known to security services. This illustrates how finite resources, and legal limitations prevent agencies from being able to provide constant surveillance of all individuals with potential violent intent.
The rise in online radicalization and diversification of extremist ideologies, both highly likely to continue on their current trajectory, ensures the challenge of detecting and disrupting potential plots will persist, increasing the likelihood for a greater number of successful attacks in the future.
Rise in antisemitism
Since ASIO revised Australia’s terrorism threat level, developments in the country’s risk environment almost immediately justified the decision. Whilst the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in October 2023 led to a rise in community tensions, a marked increase in antisemitic attacks has been observed since December 2024, contributing towards official recognition being made of a link between global conflicts and risk levels in Australia.
During this period, incidents were most frequent in Melbourne and Sydney. Notably, in January 2025, police seized an explosive-laden van in Sydney with a note inside outlining various Jewish institutions as potential targets. Officials estimated that the vehicle, packed with PowergelTM explosives, had an estimated 40-metre blast radius.
This foiled plot was preceded by an arson attack targeting a Melbourne synagogue in December, which was conducted whilst several people were inside, and is being treated as an act of terrorism.
This intense period of attacks, which has also included the vandalism to several synagogues in Sydney’s Eastern suburbs, numerous Jewish homes defaced, and the setting alight of a childcare facility, prompted the Director General of ASIO, Mike Burgess, on 25 February to state that antisemitism has become the agency’s number one priority, in terms of threats to life.
In addition to targeted attacks, the Middle East conflict has driven frequent bouts of civil unrest, which often devolve into violence. Prominently, in September 2024, up to 3,000 anti-war and pro-Palestinian protesters demonstrated outside the Land ForcesExpo, an international military conference, in Melbourne. Clashes erupted between protesters and police officers, with demonstrators launching projectiles, including acid, at law enforcement.
Up to 100 demonstrators and 24 officers were injured, whilst at least 40 individuals were arrested. Sydney and Melbourne have also witnessed almost weekly pro-Palestine demonstrations, albeit without reports of them degenerating into violence.
The increase in antisemitic attacks and the rise in civil unrest in the forms of protests, both linked to the conflict in the Middle East, demonstrates the vulnerability of Australia’s threat landscape to factors which are almost completely out of the control of its security apparatus.
Analysis
In the year since the Westfield shopping centre attack, Australia’s threat landscape has continued to evolve. Whilst there was recognition beforehand of the broad range of underlying motivations which may cause an individual to attempt a violent public act, the Bondi
Junction attack and subsequent incidents not only demonstrated many of them, but included some which had not previously been highlighted. Misogyny, Islamic extremism, anti-authority, and far-right nationalism were all identified or suspected as a major motivator for the four attacks in New South Wales (NSW) between April and July.
Whilst many personal grievances or ideologies that may cause individuals to commit violence have been recognised, any such feeling, about any perceived or real slight has the capacity to provoke an individual or group to such action.
The rise in antisemitic attacks has led to at least three police operations – Shelter, Pearl, and Avalite – being established since October 2023, demonstrating the link between global conflicts and violence within Australia. Furthermore, many of the crimes, particularly vandalism and the use of graffiti, were committed by individuals who, without the background of an ongoing conflict, would be highly unlikely to have committed public acts of violence.
Coupling these together, it should be recognized that t is almost certain that the percentage of individuals within Australia who have the propensity to conduct violence on other members of the public or their property is distinctly larger than was envisaged only a year ago.
Whilst this should be acknowledged, incidents akin to the Bondi Junction attack, the plot to kill an MP, or the Sydney University stabbing remain rare at present. However, these attacks, and the others conducted by lone actors over the past year, highlight areas where the risk of such incidents is heightened. These include high footfall areas, such as shopping centres, educational institutions – particularly high schools and universities – and places of worship. At places of worship, specifically synagogues, the threat is further heightened and will remain so until a final peaceful resolution is found between Israel and Hamas. This is particularly so in Victoria and NSW. However, acts of violence can occur anywhere, at any time, in seemingly secure and safe environments, and often without any prior warning or indicators.
Outlook
Australia’s threat landscape will continue to become more diverse and complex, with a likely increase in the number of people exposed to extremist content. This is particularly acute within generations born immediately before or since the turn of the millennium. These individuals, the most active on social media and almost certainly having accessed it at a much younger age than previous generations, are reaching adulthood where they will encounter significant additional stressors, not least the generational imbalance of the country’s economy.
Adding to the likelihood of more individuals being exposed to extremist content, and in turn radicalized, is the growing sophistication of artificial intelligence. Not only will this aid in increasing the numbers viewing such material, it will also enhance its effectiveness and diversify the methods in which it can be disseminated.
Finally, global conflicts, climate change, economic conditions, and social issues, such as immigration, are likely to have more of an impact on social cohesion than previously witnessed. Demonstrated by the rise in antisemitism, the likelihood of political level issues and events, which often have strong polarising views, being triggers for antisocial and violent behaviour is increasing.
As Australia’s threat landscape continues to evolve, whether this be the increasing numbers susceptible to radicalization, the rise in rudimentary but effective methods of attack, a growing influence from global events, or the mounting difficulty in detecting or preventing incidents, it is prudent that organizations understand their own risk profile and review their security framework accordingly.